At the GE 14 in May last year, the late Mohd Bakhtiar Mohd Nor won the Semenyih state assembly seat by a majority of 8,954 votes to the incumbent from UMNO, Datuk Johan Abdul Aziz.
With that wide a majority, PPBM candidate and son-in-law of Bakhtiar, Muhammad Aiman Bin Zainali not only cannot lose but the margin in victory is equally important.
Johan received 14,464 votes, which decreased from 17,616 votes for GE13 in 2013 and increase from 11,588 votes for GE12 in 2008. However, it was not enough to stop the anti-Najib wave that gave Bakhtiar 23,428 votes to win the seat.
The number of voters for Semenyih increased from 28,203 votes for GE12 to 53,257 votes for GE14. Still pretty much a Malay majority area with 25 to 30% Chinese.
If the votes received by UMNO and PAS at GE 14 were added together and PPBM maintain the same performance, the young PPBM candidate should win by a majority of 1,998 votes.
More so there is a high percentage of new and young voters. This was the reason Lim Guan Eng was forced, but reluctantly, to announce BR1M or rebranded as BSH for unmarried youth.
Any less or loss spells disaster for PPBM.
Off course, that is assuming the less than one year Bakhtiar name carries any weight.
Like many others in Hulu Langat UMNO Division, Bakhtiar left the party out of frustration with Johan's paranoia against rising new leaders.
Capable and potential leaders either gave up trying to do anything to arrest the party's declining popularity or quit.
Unfortunately for Aiman, he will not have a big shoe to fill but a legacy of a bad start for PPBM in the area.
There are murmurings within the community that PPBM Service Center, if they actually have one, is insensitive to peoples' grievances. Single mothers seeking their YB's endorsement for school textbook assistance for their school going children were left ignored.
In Semenyih, a source involved with the campaign said women is the majority voters in Semenyih.
As an indication of the sentiment, Tan Sri Muhyiddin tried to do a #BossKu at the same hypermarket that was a pandemonium when Najib went.
The reception turned out to be a frigid #TunggulKu.
PPBM got the seat to run last year because PKR failed to win at GE12 and GE13. Actually, PKR gained a lot of ground in the area and could have won at GE13 with their candidate Hamidi A Hasan. (Happen to be close friend and attended his wedding in Melaka many decades ago.)
Hamidi is not a case of could, but should have won, had it not for the split votes. Former PKR candidate for GE 12, S Arutchelvan ran under the Parti Sosialis Party and took away 5,568 votes. Hamidi received 13,471 votes but not enough to beat Johan's 17,616.
The pleasant, patient and ever smiling Hamidi worked hard after GE12 and continued after GE13 as state appointed coordinator for the area. He took advantage of the lax in Johan-led UMNO and turned it into a PKR stronghold.
Bakhtiar was benefitting from the effort of Hamidi but PPBM used the excuse PKR lost twice in a row there to ask for the seats. Letak songkok pun Johan dah masa untuk kalah.
Arut's votes continued to decline at GE14 to 1,293 and he had opt out of the by-election. Idealistic party like PSM would not be happy with PPBM's Chairman blocking path of reform.
Replacing him is a Nik Aziz Afiq Abdul Syiah Muslim, fatwa-ed as deviant by Selangor's JAKIM, running under PSM. His role could be to split some votes but not sure whose?
If one were to suspect he was planted by Syiah Mat Sabu, he could be initially placed to split Zakaria Hanapi, the Sunni Muslim candidate and a well received "orang masjid" to the local Malays - both UMNO or PAS or party-less.
Kuan Chee Heng or Uncle Kentang is unfortunately one candidate many love to have but may not win. Race does play a role in voting.
If DAP is supportive of PPBM, they will campaign to get Chinese voters away from Kuan. His results will make for an interesting post election analysis.
Many political games
As ruling government, there is every reason for Aiman to win. More so, as a friend operating in Semenyih puts it, there is so many political games going on in Semenyih.
Let's ignore Syed Saddiq cheap and childish old trick of provoking the crowd and followed by police report. It will not make any impact with young voters.
Neither is his argument for a hospital in Semenyih. Its a ridiculous request when there is a government and private hospital in nearby Kajang.
The media and psywar game maybe as important as ground campaign.
The interesting game that stand out is Tun Dr Mahathir's meeting with PAS and allegedly he claimed PAS will not vote UMNO in Semenyih.
What actually happen was it was merely discussion on oil royalty for Kelantan and Terengganu, in which it was paid late but deducted out state debts with Federal. It is not the case with Sabah and Sarawak.
Takiyuddin's subsequnt press release did mentioned their campaign in Semenyih will be different than Cameron Highlands because the opposite candidate is not DAP or mortal enemy PAN. This is exploited by Mahathir.
Takiyuddin said and later elaborated PAS will support Mahathir in the event of a vote of no confidance but will still remain in the pact with BN.
It is a much needed boost for Mahathir. With that out in the open, Anwar-DAP-PAN game is stifled. Mat Sabu was clearly frustrated as he called PAS a liar.
Naturally all denied there is a planned motion for a vote of no confidence and blame it on UMNO. This time this blogger is spared.
Mahathir's faction was viralling list of MP short of 112 claimed to vote for removing the PM. However, does Mahathir have the numbers too?
Much talk that PAS had given the letter of support including a statutory declaration. But why is Mahathir saying he will have to see if PAS will suport him?
There is the likelihood the letter as per the format provided by Mahathir may not be filled up and returned yet.
It is the reason there are various subtle threats against PAS such as Sarawak Report claiming PAS received RM1.5 millon of ill-gotten money from UMNO and UMNO lawyer, Datok Hafarizam and Paul Stradlen (in absentia) are being charged for money laundering.
PPBM goes on to play the game PAS is not campaigning for UMNO when in fact, they are much involved and the big guns of PAS and UMNO will be on the same stage soon.
It will be great if it is done the same night Tun goes to Semenyih (likely last night of campaign)
While they are doing their campaign, the power struggle within PH affected the Semenyih campaign.
Have to confirm first as it is heard PKR is not campaigning. Only Zuraidah and Azmin went down but not the rest.
Apparently, the latest heard Azmin has only 3 people to join the Mahathir bandwagon. At best, he could get only 8. The Chinese and Indian MPs not playing ball with Mahathir.
DAP only making token presence and not whole heartedly campaigning.
As Zainal Epi of MMO titled his piece, Pakatan on the defensive in Semenyih, they fear giving any promise as it will be responded with hancing! or kencing!
They have no answer to the failure to deliver the Manifesto and are not touching on national issue.
A friend following Muhyiddin campaign described his crowd as thin and talking only to the PPBM or Mahathir's groupies.
He could only repeat the promise to send Najib to jail which is a political rhetoric that is declining in political value. Such harsh words backfired in Cameron Highland.
Muhyiddin has nothing to campaign for.
There are other games going on - many in fact, however the game within PPBM is interesting.
Dato Mukhriz is supposed to be Election Director for Semenyih.
His boy, Anas has started setting up shop last weekend, according to an FT PPBM source, but it seemed only Muhyiddin could be seen.
Is there a power struggle between Muhyiddin and Mukhriz?
Couple of sources were saying the children of Mahathir are shying away from the public. F1 return announcement was only a camouflage. Mokhzani and family have moved to London!
Will it mean the strong arms tactics of Mahathir at work will not proceed?
So ... will it be Argentina or Bosnia or Chechnya?