The outcome for the Rantau by-election has too many uncertainty and no side could claim to be able to wrap up the voters. After campaigning ended midnight last night and so does the message, dirt dig up, and psywar, it now comes down to "transport" to get their white voters out and how the game of numbers turns out.
Whatever the outcome, the absence of Tun Dr Mahathir from campaigning is of interest. Words are he was expected to appear at the grand final campaign last night with Dato Seri Anwar Ibrahim, but he announced non-attending yesterday's late afternoon.
Even without him, the crowd of 1,000 at PKR's final political rally was a credible attendance. It could not match the number at BN's grand final with PAS the night before and mostly locals. Despite the usually high number of import crowd at PKR campaign rally, this time there were 50% local attending.
It could be indication PKR managed to eat into the overwhelming Malay support for BN's Dato Mohamed Hasan or his affectionately called by local as Tok Mat. Mahathir's presence could have made it better. But why did he not attend?
Will his presence be bad luck as his presence ended into two losses at Cameron Highlands and Semenyih? Or Mahathir did not want PKR to win to return back the PKR "sabotage" at Semenyih?
The preference of the locals is for incumbent Tok Mat, but he is no more MB and BN is no more the state and federal government. The voters' appetite could change accordingly for this rural area in the peripheral of today's expanded urban Seremban.
The majority of almost 55% Malays will remain with Tok Mat, but PKR's aim is to take away some Malay votes away. If they manage to swing 10-15%, Mat Hasan could lose. So will his stint at national level politics. It will hasten Dato Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi's return.
The Chinese is less than 20% and if the trend of 40% not turn up to vote as in Semenyih, it could spell trouble for PKR. DAP have been actively doing house to house campaign. So did MCA, whose been working very hard.
The outside voters may not return and usually have their own mind. They are not happy with the state of the non-stop declining economy. No ECRL announcement and the re-route through Jelebu will appease them.
Streram have not been saying the right thing in public. Even the personal attack on alleged money laundering and not so relevant home, could dent Mat Hasan. In fact, UMNO's response was to expose replay with their own expose of Streram, London homes of Azmin and swimming pooled home of Streram.
Suspiciously, the Doktor Rakyat is no angel as Doktor Umum. The reverse psychology with the "Jangan Undi Keling" banner by PKR was signs of desperatate campaign to locals' eyes as much as it is intensified campaign.
Just two nights ago, PKR campaign workers told a reporter friend that Mat Hasan still has the slight edge, thus they are focusing on the easier to sway Indian voters, So the need for PKR to viral Kulasegaran's racially upfront and seditous campaign.
With Tommy Thomas as Attorney General, DAP can get away with corruption and murder. But, that is politics and if playing the race card is what it takes for DAP to help Dato Seri Anwar Ibrahim, they have no problem in using. Their concern against UMNO-PAS cooperation is just a empty political rhetorics.
Just yesterday, an MIC campaign worker claimed out of 25% Indian voters, 15% is for Tok Mat. In the Rantau area with many estates and also Hindu temples, Tok Mat is well accepted by the Indians. But this is an election and Indians may want to have their own represent Rantau in the state assembly.
Anwar versus Mat Hasan
Streram maybe a weak candidate, but he has been relentless to pursue for the re-election. Anwar cannot not choose him. A Malay candidate would have created more trouble for Mat Hasan, but he did not.
So Anwar have to play a big role and he practically campaigned every day and night. It has come to the point the Rantau by-election is seen as a Mat Hasan vs Anwar contest.
Firstly, with his fumbling statements, Dr Streram is not credible candidate against UMNO's Deputy President cum Acting President. He is said to be a Perantau (meaning outsider) to local boy made good, orang Rantau Mat Hasan. In Negeri Sembilan, that matters.
It needs a national figure like Anwar to balloon him up.
From the initial talk that Tun Dr Mahathir is coming to campaign for the final dash, he announced non-attendance late afternoon yesterday. It only heightened speculation of the silent clash between the two.
Before the election, it is said that PPBM will avenge PKR for "boycotting" Semenyih that ended them losing the by-election. It only confirms the speculation. Some PPBM sources claimed the result will be a + or - 500 votes either way.
Does that mean Mahathir's non-attendance was intended to tip the balance? That way Anwar cannot claim Mahathir loses by-elections and himself could both win and help to win by-elections.
A bit early for such claim, more so with Sandakan coming and Bukit Gantang is expected to resign as MP. However, it is part of the pressure on Mahathir to do the power transition to Anwar or Azmin.
Recently, Anwar added more pressure on the weakening heart and health Mahathir by revealing that the hands behind the coup d'etat attempt through the pressure to U-turn on Rome Statute is royal.
The second poking after revealing Rameli Musa was the person that paid Clare Rewcastle RM1.4 million to go for settlement with Haji Hadi. That ended up revealing Mahathr's hands.
However, Mahathir has send a clearer message that he will not pass the PMship in the near future yet and intend to stay for two terms as per PH manifesto. It was to answer a question from PKR's MP for Pasir Gudang on the transition of powert to PM#8.
Showdown with the royals
The pressure on Mahathir from Johor's Crown Prince saw PPBM's Johor MB resign and another "constitutional crisis" rearing its head on who is constitutional empowered to determine Johor's MB.
Datok Osman Sapian could not be MB if not for the hands of someone with close friendship with the Sultan. Dato Daeng Malek, the former UMNO Divisional head for Kota Tinggi, had two UMNO state assemblymen from within Kota Tinggi parliamentary area to crossover to PPBM.
The idea was better to have former UMNO than a non-UMNO link as MB. DAP has the most number of state assemblymen and will be expected to demand their Malay state representative be chosen. PKR too is demanding.
Mahathir may want to insist on PPBM, but Shaharuddin may not get the opportunity should Sultan is empowered. The royal households may want to teach Mahathir the lesson and to let him know there is no existent a DYMM Mahathir.
Raja-Raja Melayu cannot be a second generation half Indian from Kerala. Mat Salleh blood tak apa.
Nevertheless, a lifelong dream of Mahathir is to get rid of the monarchy or curb their powers to the level of ceremonial role and in humanitaian initiatives as in the Queen of England and her family.
It would encourage a larger demonstration than anti-ICERD and he cannot afford to have the full Malay support against him. It translate to no support from anyone from within and without Malaysia, except Tun Daim and his sons quest for more privatisation businesses.
A head on collision will give Malays the platform to vent out all their grievances against Mahathir. The same grievances with the Chinese i.e. economics. As much as economics pulled down Najib, it will pull down PH, including Mahathir.
TH's Zaiton failed to help PH in Rantau
Back to PRK Rantau, the PH campaign have been targeting an upset.
Look at the manner, one after another national issues including fake looking scandals of LTAT and Tabung Haji is being exposed.
Tabung Haji is not working as well so they used a Felda White Paper. Thanks to Zaiton's bullying of a Facebooker and Zukri's outright lying.
Read more in Abdul Halim Hilmi Zakariya HERE.
The problem with Felda happenned to be rooted to a short man from Negeri Sembilan, who used to be Mat Hasan's political nemesis in his early years as MB.
At least, Azmin admitted there is no truth RM8 billion was stolen from Felda. It was Najib's time that Isa Samad was investigated and charged in court.
But why Mahathir covered up for Zahid Md Arip?