There are many theories abound as to why Dato Seri Anwar Ibrahim intend to run at the Kajang state by-election or should "bi-election" be more appropriate and assume the position of Menteri Besar.
Some claim Anwar is anxious to return to his old bad habit at Ministry of Finance for putting his hands in the cookie jars. He already mentioned of spending the state budget of RM2 billion wisely.
On top of that, no pun intended, Anwar will inherit a sizable reserve of RM4 billion accumulated by the miserly Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim. [Read also Helen Ang here] After state reserve was depleted by the free water campaign promise, Khalid re-accumulated reserve by slashing social programs and selling state lands for development at market rate, including to state owned PKNS.
There is also the suspicion that Anwar and Khalid has a sinister intention to wet their beaks on the massive federal funded development of RRI land at Sungai Buloh and suddenly agreeable Langat 2 Water Treatment Plant [read MyMassa here]
At this juncture, it is still heresay.
PKR leaders and supporters expect Anwar to put in place a better system to distribute political funds or rewards to supporters and party workers. Khalid withheld any such requests from PKR members and leaders like Azmin lost face.
PKR members privately acknowledge there is some truth to the claim by UMNO supporters that Khalid had been firm with their own but lenient with DAP and PAS.
They could notice their DAP comrades getting financial rewards from underworld related activities like massage parlours, illegal gambling, entertainment, etc under the purview of local council.
Menteri Besar or not?
Since the annoncement that Anwar is running in the Kajang "bi-election" to fill in the seat emptied by the resignation of Lee Chin Cheh, Anwar and PKR have came under a barrage of criticism from political opponents, PAS and their friendly activists.
They were accused for abusing the democratic process to address their internal party personality clash. After doing a "kangkung" on the Prime Minister for being insensitive to the problem of price hike, Anwar is now being "taugay"-ed for wasteful spending of public fund.
The only accuse given by them is that BN waste more money but obviously it is a weak argument that could not be easily bought into by the urban or sub-urban Kajang voters.
In an attempt to divert the blame from Anwar, Rafizi claim responsibility for the idea. He explained himself in MI here with a ridiculous conspiracy theory that BN will seize Selangor when Najib is removed and pro-Mahathir faction takes control of government..
The best reply to Rafizi must be from blogger Hantu Laut here. He described Pakatan's Minister of Propaganda explanation as "A pathetic lie even a child can see through".
Our PKR source acknowledged that Anwar is planned as Menteri Besar at the interim to replace Khalid. The reason is to address the animosity between Khalid and Azmin that have been on-going for too long and disrupting
Khalid have not been giving Azmin the slack and the competition heightened at the time when Wan Azizah-Khalid-Nurul faction pitted Dato Zaid Ibrahim against Azmin for Deputy president in the last PKR party election.
Expect an interesting party election soon because this stunt is viewed by certain quarter as Anwar's attempt to divert attention against the barrage of personal and administrative issues that he and Selangor Pakatan Rakyat government is facing.
He has his sodomy case at the Court of Appeal . The divorce of his daughter. Lim Guan Eng Mercedes. Today's Utusan Malaysia in the frontpage and pages 4 and 5 is filled with such theories.
Anwar and Azmin opposed to Selangor speaker, MB and exco members pay rise. AMK member openly opposed to increases in water rate, business licenses, assessment, retailers business plot, etc.
Racial and religious animosity is on the rise as a result of the name of Allah issue, rising racial animosity between Malay and Chinese, etc that are attributable to Anwar's agitation. Thus the sudden Act II of the national reconciliation drama.
Unlike our PKR source, who happen to run in the last general election, there are those that do not see Anwar will take up the Menteri Besar post. He will merely serve the role to do a "check and balance" on Khalid and at the same time, "protect"Khalid from Azmin.
However among the various comments today in Utusan Malaysia today, Anwar's former Private Secretary, Anuar Shaari hit a note similar to our intuition.
He believed the path ahead is difficult and even the possibility that Anwar will not get HRH Sultan of Selangor's consent.
Khalid's Private Secretary Faekah gave a similar warning to "orang luar" (outsiders) aspiring to be Menteri Besar of Selangor.
Former Deputy Public Prosecutor and now currently in private practise, Dato Salehuddin Saidin wrote an article in Utusan Malaysia today.
To quote a relevent extract below:
"Pelantikan MB terletak di bawah bidang kuasa Sultan Selangor yang mana baginda mempunyai kuasa budi bicara dalam perkara itu selaras dengan Perkara 53 dan Perkara 55(2)(a) Undang-undang Tubuh Kerajaan Negeri Selangor 1959.Read in full here.
"Bidang kuasa Sultan Selangor dalam melantik MB telah dinyatakan dengan jelas dalam peruntukan undang-undang yang telah termaktub dalam perlembagaan negeri," kata beliau.
Pada masa sama, kata Salehuddin lagi, terdapat prasyarat yang telah diperuntukkan di bawah undang-undang berkenaan pertamanya, seseorang menteri besar yang dilantik hendaklah dalam kalangan Ahli Dewan Undangan Negeri (ADUN) selain mendapat kepercayaan majoriti ahli dewan.
Tambahnya, seseorang menteri besar juga haruslah berketurunan Melayu dan beragama Islam seperti mana termaktub dalam undang-undang berkenaan.
"Pemilihan seseorang individu untuk menjadi menteri besar adalah dibuat oleh sesebuah parti yang mendapat sokongan majoriti daripada rakyat dalam pilihan raya.
"Parti yang memenangi pilihan raya itu boleh mengemukakan calon-calon untuk pertimbangan Sultan Selangor. Sultan Selangor akan memilih seorang menteri besar yang difikirkan layak oleh baginda.
"Bagaimanapun, calon-calon tersebut haruslah memenuhi prasyarat seperti yang telah diperuntukkan di bawah Undang-undang Tubuh Kerajaan Negeri Selangor," katanya.
Berdasarkan Perkara 63 Undang-Undang Tubuh Kerajaan Negeri Selangor 1959, tiap-tiap warganegara yang berumur 21 tahun atau lebih yang bermastautin di negeri ini adalah layak menjadi ahli Dewan Negeri. Ini melainkan jika dia hilang kelayakan untuk menjadi ahli menurut Perlembagaan Persekutuan atau Undang-Undang Tubuh Kerajaan negeri ini atau menurut mana-mana undang-undang sebagaimana yang tersebut dalam Perkara 64.
Will Sultan Selangor agree to have an MB with criminal record and prospect of returning back to jail?
Missing from Salehuddin Saidin's article is a widely believed condition set by the royal family that the Menteri Besar has to be an anak Selangor.
That was the very reason Selangor's Electtion Coordinator, Dato Zin "Badak" was never considered for a state seat in the last general election, which means he will be BN's choice for Menteri Besar subject to them winning. Zin was born in Muar Johor and raised in Melaka.
Showdown
All these points to a showdown between Anwar and Sultan Selangor. And, this will be Pakatan Rakyat's second constitutional crisis with the state sovereign after Perak in 2009.
There are few reasons to such such political theory.
Firstly, the open defiance to the Sultan Selangor by recent comment from lawyer Edmond Bon to question the Sultan's decree to forbid non Muslims use the name of Allah.
Pure Shiite rebutted it here and turned the so-called constitutional expert as a fake for missing something so basic.
Through out the Pakatan Rakyat government, there have been many open spats between the state government of Selangor and the rulers.
Sultan had issued decrees against use of Masjid and Surau for politics, controversy surrounding DUMC raid and openly questioning the state government on several occasions.
In response to Sultan's intervention and decree, there have been similar defying statements from Khalid and exco members.
The Sultan was viewed by Pakatan political leaders as intervening in state administrative matters.
Secondly, the intention of Pakatan Rakyat to do away with monarchy and turn the country into a republic is known.
Azmin had gloated in the past to his family of Anwar's plan and his acceptance to do away with the monarchy system and turn Malaysia republic.
DAP would support any intention to rid off any Malay heritage and institutions. Former DAP, Razali had been going around the country exposing DAP's big plans for the country upon acquiring power. Glimpses of things to come is presently in Penang.
Recently YB Khalid Samad made known of the intention to go head on with the Sultans to his supporters in his twitter:
For the past few years, one should have seen the following flag waved on Dataran Merdeka on new year eve. The flag is falsely claim to be that of a past Malay kingdom but is meant to be the flag for the Republic of Malaysia.
In the picture above is Hishamuddin Rais. This socialist inclined activist openly express his distaste for institutional monarchy.
Bersih 3.0 rally had a poster displaying respect for the HRH Seri Paduka Baginda Yang DiPertuan but had symbol openly showing support for a Republic.
Thirdly, the Malay rulers will not consent to any form of government that arise from a coup d'etat.
Anwar is already late in his age to wait for GE15 to democratically bring down BN government.
He knows that the controversies he has got himself in will still not win the Malay hearts.
His Sabah plan is no where in sight with Dato Lajim at the helm. The move into Sarawak by DAP may not bear much since DAP is still Chinese dominated political party.
BN have time to recover and scrape through GE14.
So his plan is to stir things fast enough and the monarchy will also be made collateral damage.
More frequent than 2007, Pakatan Rakyat and their proxy NGOs are currently churning issues and doing big demonstration monthly. Intention is clear that Anwar is desperate and he wants power now.
Conveniently, there is a mass demonstration scheduled for May 1st at Putrajaya.That will be after the Kajang "bi-election" expected in February and in time for their close encounter with the palace to heat up.
By March 5th, there is the Federal Court date for the name of Allah issue. If it turns out negatively for the Catholic Church, that is support from 10% of the Christian population and the Malay liberals.
Anwar knows that today's public do not relate to the monarchy as before.
There are underlying resentments against palaces for abusing their position for securing timber, sand, and mineral extractions concessions at the cost of Malay businessmen and the JV partners to the palace are seldom Chinese businessmen.
Palaces have been securing state land to be developed by Chinese businessman to be sold to foreigners and out of state buyers at sky high prices and beyond the affordability of voting rakyat negeri.
In one western coast port, one shipper claimed that 5 acres of the sea was sold at the request of the palace to a Chinese businessmen to squeeze rental from "parking" ships and port. The behaviour of some Sultans and Crown Princes in public leaves much to be desired.
Private spat in the royal household like the one in Johor are now out in the open syariah court and reported by mainstream newspapers and alternative media.
It does not auger well to the image of the royal household of Johor.
With social media, such stories, news and gossips could go viral in a matter of minutes. The palace or government authority will not be able to contain from the public knowledge. Worse still, they may not be fast enough to gauge public sentiment.
Matters are made worse by the reluctance of palace officials to be close and allow royal audience to NGOs defending institutional monarchy like Perkasa. If a showdown occur, the monarchy system will end up fending for themselves.
Government is too afraid and weak to maintain law and order. Applying the sedition law will only agitate the opposition and their well oiled propaganda and political machinery. There is no more ISA and EO to fear with.
Who would have thought Sabah be attacked by ragtag guerilla fighters? It only makes this theory of a royal encounter highly possible.