We've been traversing the country for the last two months and more so during the election period. This general election, our focus is on home state Johor and in particular, Gelang Patah. Must have made three trips to Gelang Patah and few to Muar and Batu Pahat.
Pakatan Rakyat can continue to play their mind games on the voters and violence and threats on Barisan Nasional supporters, but they are losing and trailing. Gelang Patah will be Dato Ghani for the take.
Forget the statistics and number crunching. The tell tales signs are all over for a victorious Barisan Nasional. We are feeling two third is not impossible.
The Malaysian Insider itself reported on May 2nd that Dato Najib is leading in the ratings by 73% in popularity over Dato Seri Anwar's 32%. That is too significant to dispute. [Note: Rocky Bru just alerted on our way back from Gelang Patah that the report is false. See here.]
For Pakatan, don't blame it on Election Commission. That is what Bersih wants to. But blame it on themselves.
Their campaign screwed.
Gelang Patah
One of our informer said Lim Kit Siang had confided with uncle Lobert, Tan Sri Robert Phang. He cursed at his wrong move by swearing at Ghani Othman.
If it had been Jason Teoh, he would have made mince meat out of him. But with Gelang Patah at 52-53% Chinese, it is a 50:50 seat Kit Siang is not accustomed too.
Gelang Patah is a huge area, slightly smaller than Singapore. Again, Uncle Kit is not used to. All his past constituencies are urban and smaller in size... very manageable.
Heard he had to face hostile crowd when campaigning to the Malays and also Chinese.
Indian is also beyond reach after the Kg Buah Pala Penang incident. Najib hs got the support of Hindraf and Waytha Moorthy campaigned for Najib and Ghani.
Kit Siang knows Ghani can reach to the Chinese but he insist on playing the favourite role and Ghani comfortable at being underdog.
Kit Siang strategy is to create the wave of big Chinese crowd at Sutera Mall and Skudai. The crowd maybe be huge in the 7-10,000 but only the front and supporters are exuberant The rest are wait and see. Majority of the attendee are curious outsiders.
Ghani did not entertain Kit Siang's brickbat but choose to play it soft, the Johore Way he claims. He could have played the good cop, bad cop campaign but he did not.
Underdog Italy can beat a ferocious attacking Brazil. Ghani is the understated favourite.
Kit Siang failed to see the Jason Teoh factor. He thought the 20,000 newly registered voters in which it is about 70% is Chinese and 30% Malay. And, he didn't understand thoroughly why Dr Boo Cheng Hau is strong in Skudai.
All for his cocky, arrogant and to'kong son.
Barisan Nasional
In our own asessment without giving up any details and numbers, BN is heading for two third majority.
Sabah, Sarawak, Johor despite DAP's attempt, Pahang, and Melaka are fixed deposits.
There could be some threat on Negeri Sembilan from DAP and Terengganu from PAS but it will be BN to keep.
Winds of change is loud in Kelantan and Kedah and do not be surprise to see both fall. Kelantan people are fed-up with inefficiency of PAS administration. The same in Kedah but in fighting is the real problem. There is some in fighting in UMNO as usual in the two state in famous for cah keting, but contained.
Plus and minus, chances are very strong for Dato Mukhriz to be next Kedah MB and his current boss, be Kelantan's next MB. Nik Aziz will opposition leader sigh ...
Perlis is not a problem.
Our prediction for Perak is for two third of the state assembly is BN. Do not be surprise that the Ngeh Ng brothers will be jobless.
For Penang, be ready for some surprise results Unless MCA and Gerakan can carry their own, Penang will still be with DAP. Who knnows miracle happen.
Mind game
Pakatan is trying to play a mind game and blame it on EC. Then they hope to start a revolution and topple the government by force.
Anwar forgot.
One needs an empty stomach. Malaysia has too high level of obesity among it's population to have a revolution.
If he has to blame anyone, it has to be himself. He is not a saleable product for PM. Neither are Kit Siang or Hadi. Definately not Lim Guan Eng.
Party or candidate as a product needs a good track record. Pakatan has none to show but only spin and use of propaganda to tell the public their are good. The acknowledgement is not from the public and all work of life.
The blame BN of this and that but they themselves did it. How do they expect voters will give them a chance?
True, they are great propagandist and with their psywar. But campaigning is not merely of that. It is not just black op and psywar.
Mind game is not forever. Over time, the truth will surface and it will set them free from their dreams of Putrajaya.
Political campaign needs a good and honest selling and proper image. BN has ownership on good image, attracting the crowd and spirited in a positive way.
Pakatan screwed it up with their militancy. And they will lose.
Lain Kali Lah
PM Dato Najib was reported in today's NST:
"Kelantanese have lost faith in PAS in many aspects. For example, the case of 'Kalimah Allah', a pondok ustaz told me that Pas had committed the biggest kemungkaran (disavowal) of aqidah (faith). When I asked him what it was, he said it was when Pas proclaimed that Pas is Islam and Islam is Pas. After 23 years, they feel that it is time for a change."
"The (Pas held) Kedah government was dysfunctional. The menteri besar and several of his exco members were disunited and were openly squabbling with each others. "
"In Selangor, they have been disappointed by empty promises made in 2008. In many areas, it is clear that they felt cheated when pledges made then were not kept."
On Pas vs Islam, PM said, "Pas has not defended the issue of aqidah (faith), This is a major reason why their traditional staunch supporters, pondok school teachers, and many ustaz had lost their trust in the party.
"To them, Pas has damaged the aqidah of Muslims. They view this seriously."
So, Pakatan Rakyat ...in case they did not realise, Ini Kali Lah is not good slogan. In Arabic, it resembles the meaning "I'm Allah". It is the boastful word of Dajjal when it surfaces on this earth.
LAIN KALI LAH
Updated: 8:00 PM