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Malaysian politics to do a "Dallas" in 2016

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2015 came and ended quickly.

It felt only recently that Arul Kanda joined 1MDB as CEO when in fact, it is almost a year since he joined in mid January 2015.

The planned rationalisation of 1MDB's debt he was assigned is already in the works. Announced are IPIC's debt for asset swap, sales of Edra, and announced at the buzzer yesterday the 60% sales of Bandar Malaysia to a consortium led by IWH Berhad and partner China Engineering for RM12.35 billion.

That more than cleared the RM42 billion debt in the 2014 accounts. The year has truly ended.

To use the latin term used by Queen Elizabeth, it has been an annus horribilis for 2015. A difficult political decision had to be made.

For 2016, The Mole had written this blogger's comment here. Mentioned is "public losing interest in the 1MDB issue, which had troubled the prime minister throughout this year".

Not mention is the belief that politics in Malaysia could turn into a Dallas. Not "Debbie does Dallas" type but the primetime soap opera, Dallas of the late 70s.

Stories in soap opera are open ended. It depicts relationship and affairs in the daily life of soap opera characters.

Unlike in movies or TV series, soap opera allows in the storyline for characters to switch roles.

Antagonist could turn protagonist or the other way around. Enemy become allies and friends tyrn enemies. Switching lovers and at times, the unlikely of partners.

All for no apparent logical reasons than purely to meet the emotionally melodramatic audience of the soap and detergent manufacturer market.  

Does Dallas


Judging from events unfolding towards the end of 2015, Malaysian politics could do a Dallas. The Mole commented that it had been a lively year for politics

After the UMNO General Assembly and for the rest of December, politics have been rather slow. There was supposed to be demonstration on December 27th to call on Dato Najib to resign by the coalition of UMNO branch leaders but it didn't happen.

Tan Sri Muhyiddin was expected to give his "wind-up" speech and take the inevitable quarrel to another level but it did not happen.

Wall Street Journal attempted to reveal new startling revelation did not attract attention.

The allegation of 1MDB remitting USD850 million to a fake off shore Abu Dhabi account did not catch on. 1MDB called them recycling answered issue. LSS has an explanation here.

Pro-Tun bloggers like Din Turtle, Apanama, Outsyed The Box and the lastly, Jebat Must Die tried but it could not make the issue viral during the holiday season.
   
Another attempt by WSJ was to recycle questions on 1MDB as conduit for political funding with disputed fact three days ago. It suffered similar fate as attempts by Tun Dr Mahathir to rehash his disputed issues in the three postings before the UMNO GA. 


By the time, Tun M made a non-1MDB posting on the recently alleged terrorist attack in Paris, MyKMU teased it as a ceasefire.

They made an aggressive diversion on the rising ERL fare and toll hike to the lop-sided concession agreements structured under Tun M.

Before this YTL was stripped bare of their first generation IPP deal. 

Proton came under heavy attack for allegedly usurping public fund in the tune of RM30 billion upon announcement that the new model Proton will be 30% higher.

Together revealed was Tan Sri Vincent Tan had his application for gaming license rejected. 

Strangely, RPK was playing down Tun M and speculating that it is Muhyiddin that is the main player in the attack on Najib.

Something more could be coming on Tun M but he has his aimed gun at Muhyiddin. It gave the tip-off by a non-player friend some credibility.

Though the exposes did create a little dent on Tun M's reputation, it is unlikely the douse his fighting spirit. He will not give up and those that met him to advise a truce saw him as critical as ever on the 1MDB and RM2.6 billion donation.


As one blogger shared her observation several days ago, he seemed "possessed" to bring down Najib. The role played by the character JR Ewing in Dallas.

Though comfortable within UMNO, Najib need to offer a convincing and indisputable explanation for closure to the various allegations hurled against him.

Otherwise, the negative perception on him by the public and UMNO grassroot will be permanently imbedded. Those that gave him a chance to resolve 1MDB may pull back their support.

His comfortable hold on the party may not work out to his political advantage. Former MCA President, Dato Dr Chua Soi Lek expressed the possibility that BN could lose the next general election.

There goes the Ewing's Texas oil empire.

Switching roles


There are several possibilities in the fued again the Barnes, i.e. Najib. In the series Dallas, Ewing family mortal enemy were the Barnes.

One would be to continue the effort of WSJ by reviving the 1MDB issue with more dramatic script. 

Another possibility, and it be done concurrently, is to focus attack on Najib's public policies, primarily the negative effect of rising prices from Dato Idris Jala-inspired transformation of public finance.

It is reported yesterday that the coalition of UMNO branch leaders have started a campaign to do a 1,000 solat hajat to pray for Najib's resignation.

Possibly the new voice of pro-Tun and anti-Najib, FMT seemed to up the ante on Najib in the last few days of the year despite the holiday indifferent public.

Today's issue see them begin to report few of Tun M's latest criticism. He has started on TPPA which is due for debate in Parliament.

The soap opera script suspected to happen is possible changes in the political alignment. Sufficient events gave hint of "Where will this quarrel lead to?"


Early in the year, RPK revealed in his February posting that Azmin had met Tun M in London.

The reason for the meeting arranged by London-based Kamal Siddiqui was not mentioned. A source said Tun M was uninterested to talk politics with Dato Azmin but only on Malay issue.  

When Tun M appeared at Azmin's son wedding recently, there was a strange tone in Azmin's speech as he showered him with much accolade. That made AMK led by Azizah's supporter, Nik Nazmi restless as though Azmin had foresaken Anwar.

So it is a wonder what would the Malay issue was because this blog revealed of a meeting on April 23rd between Tun M and Datin Dr Wan Azizah's people; Johari Abdul and Saifuddin Nasution, at the Yayasan Kepimpinan Perdana [read here]. Tun was talking politics.

A source said Tun M had then predicted the removal of Muhyiddin as Deputy Prime Minister. That is the trademark of Tun M's politics. He has the uncanny ability to anticipate and pre-empt the opponent moves.


Najib's political life could be made tough in the next three months because his "penasihat" are not sufficiently proactive and tend to be reactive.
KWhy three months is because the September target for Najib's resignation was rumoured to have shifted to March 2016.

For the comfort of Nik Nazmi, Chegu Bard and Tian Chua, former UMCEDEL Director and now Vice-Chairman of Selangor think tank Darul Ehsan Institute, Professor Datuk Dr Redzuan Othman believe Anwar will always be part of PKR struggle.

Otherwise, PKR could not exist, could they?

RPK view that Anwar is a relic will fall on PKR's deaf ear. So if such view remain while Azmin is cosying up with Tun M, it could mean several possibilities.


One being Tun M could be teaming up with PKR, or at least Azmin to being Najib down in which part of the deal is the safety of Anwar's wife and family.

The old man could have anticipated Najib's close working relation with certain PAS leaders thus the need for him to do a arrategic alliance with PKR.

Foe becomes friend, and friend become foe. The enemy of your enemy is your friend.

DAP would be too far fetch and his UMNO grassroot sympathiser will scorn on him. To be in coalition with PKR serve the same purpose. One could notice Lim Kit Siang repeatedly setting the volleyballball for Tun M to spike.

PKR and DAP is in a coalition with Amanah through Pakatan Harapan. In Amanah, there is a leader said to be Tun M's former partner-in crime to help criticise or revealed from outside on any of his political foes within UMNO.

Tun M was the person that gave Azmin his break in Government before he was taken in into Anwar's office.

His family had strong relation with Pak Ali's family. He was the one to "tepung tawar" Azmin at his wedding ceremony to Shamsidar Tahrin.

His Highnesses the Sultan Of Selangor and Perak together with Muhyiddin and Dato Hishamuddin were present at Azmin's son wedding.

But the presence of Tun M may have it's own significance to reunite past relationship.

In Sabah, it is no big deal for politicians of different political parties to attend and socialise among themselves.

Though it does happen, it is not common happenings in Semenanjung.

Strange bedfellows


The relation between Muhyiddin and Azmin have it's own significance. Rumours has it that Muhyiddin and Azmin and their people had sat together at KLGCC late into the night several weeks ago.

Even though many of his former people had left UMNO and join PKR, it is premature to say Muhyiddin is willing to be in Tun M's coalition with PKR. As RPK speculate it is Muhyiddin that is realky calling the shot. The UMNO in Muhyiddin will not do so.

Maybe he is playing his role as Deputy President of UMNO. It was said that Muhyiddin had a discusion with Azmin to discuss the politics of Selangor. Muhyiddin had then represented UMNO to talk to Azmin during the leadership crisis arising from the pressured resignation of Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim.

Azmin got appointed with the support of PAS. However, the support of UMNO was in the calculation. This is the very reason Azmin insist on two PAS state assemblymen to remain in the state exco despite DAP and Wan Azizah's faction vocal opposition.


It could be the reason that Hadi's man, Dato Iskandar Samad was vocal against UMNO-PAS coalition after the Azhar University Alumni Multaqa event that discuss the cooperation between UMNO and PAS. Dato Haji Hadi Awang was seen on stage with Najib.

Hadi could be playing a hard to get game or keeping his options open using his boy Iskandar. On one hand he extend his hand to Najib but on the hand, he gets his man to critise the possible coalition to appease the grassroot from leaving for Amanah.

In view of Tun M's proactive and far sighted politics, there is also that possibility that he may be sending olive branch to PAS via Azmin. He had already brush off Najib's ability to do a cooperation between UMNO and PAS.


That possibility could be seen from the recent Perkasa General Meeting. Usually it was held before UMNO General Assembly but now after.

Tan Sri Sanusi Junid was the honoured "tokoh".. In his speech, he mentioned past attempt to united UMNO and PAS failed due to "hasutan" by certain group.

It was mentioned in front of the invited current and former PAS Secretary General, Dato Takiyuddin Hasan and Dato Mustapha Ali, respectively.

Most likely, he may have meant it to target a certain faction in UMNO. It could be intended to fail the cooperation.

Perkasa President, Dato Ibrahim Ali also made disparaging remarks on UMNO. He threatened Perkasa could change support away from UMNO if it does not change.

However, observer see it as his attempt to persuade PAS to allow him to run again for Pasir Mas on PAS ticket. Mustapha is PAS Election Director.


A point to note. PAS Youth leader, Nik Abduh Nik Aziz did say it is UMNO and PAS cooperation for a united ummah and not political coalition. PAS want to remain as opposition for now.

The politics has all the making of a Dallas soap opera but it is still not over.

Azmin faction is in competition with Wan Azizah.

Many in PKR felt that it is time for a makeover from the constant fight for Anwar to a new way forward. His supporter see him as more a PM material than Azizah.

However, DAP and Amanah is more comfortable to "use" her as Opposition Leader. She is easier to tame.

Possible twist


There is also the internal bickering within DAP. It is still boiling and not yet spilling over yet.

Some are already making a forecast that the days of Lim Kit Siang and Lim Guan Eng are numbered. It is still far fetch but they could be making their exit especially there is sufficient coffer from "developments" in Penang.

Another far fetch theory for now is DAP to be in a coalition with UMNO. The Ewing-Barnes family feud did not stop Bobby Ewing from marrying Pamela Barnes.


Though the perception created is that BN could lose the election, there are pro-opposition political analyst seeing that the opposition may be too presumptous.

Najib could still make it through in the next GE and from there on, solidify his position further.

Subsequently, Najib potential set back will be to fulfill the long list of promises he made to remain in power.

The illogical soap opera script continues with possible spin-off like Knot's Landing.

And somewhere in there, there will be roles for gorgeous characters like Pam Ewing, Sue Allen, Mandy Winger and Jenna Wade.

Does soap and detergent manufacturers' political script serve the purpose of nation building? Think about it.



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