Never bothered to listen to the budget speech. More keen on the broad area of past performance, forecast, challenges, strategy and focus. Rather wait out for the next morning paper for the details.
The budget to be tabled by Dato Najib in Parliament this evening is important. It will be the first budget after the loss of oil revenue. Meeting public expectation, or more accurately, to meet the expectation of a public so used to government subsidy will be a challenge.
One can expect much hue and cry, especially from among the Bumiputera community experiencing the transition or government buzzwords, transformation to reduced oil revenue, from dependent on NEP to be more independent, competitive and merit, from highly subsidised economy to a more efficient and focused subsidy system, and towards high income economy.
There have been some prepping in the mainstream media on what to expect but that brought about politically motivated statements, actions and deceptions to lure the public out of reality into emotional response beneficial to their power quest.
Politicians being politicians, particularly opposition seeking for power, they will manipulate the basic cognitive nature of human. It was touched before in the posting here touching on public gullibility or in an attempt to be political correct, cognitive miserly. It means literally lazy to think.
This time it relates to a psychology book entitled The Political Brain.It was recommended by a friend but after reading several review, believe it was nothing new worthy to spend money to buy from Amazon. However, the essence of the book is important to be shared.
Scientific American described the phenomenon described by the research by Drew Westen of Emory University as confirmation bias with an observation by philosopher Francis Bacon:
The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion ... draws all things else to support and agree with it. And though there be a greater number and weight of instances to be found on the other side, yet these it either neglects and despises ... in order that by this great and pernicious predetermination the authority of its former conclusions may remain inviolate. --Francis Bacon, Novum Organum, 1620In an experiment to assess brain activity to a group of politicians to statements by George Bush and John Kerry, it was found that:
The neuroimaging results, however, revealed that the part of the brain most associated with reasoning--the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex--was quiescent. Most active were the orbital frontal cortex, which is involved in the processing of emotions; the anterior cingulate, which is associated with conflict resolution; the posterior cingulate, which is concerned with making judgments about moral accountability; and--once subjects had arrived at a conclusion that made them emotionally comfortable--the ventral striatum, which is related to reward and pleasure.The conclusion as to take a line from a NYT review in 2007, is a horrific and scary prospect.
"Reason and rationality, therefore, play a limited role in political decisions."
That explains the manner the campaign for the current US Presidency between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. As a non-politicians, Trump lack the experience, verbal articulation and temperament to get into the usual political debate of election.
He stick to his experience as a wheeler dealer and salesman and pursued the emotional side of the public. It has been successful for him during the Republican primaries against opponents unprepared with his loud talk straight and no holds barred provocative ways.
Despite lacking any coherent strategy or plan, he managed to get the attention of his targeted core group of white, working class and conservatives. If Hillary had stuck to the ways of other Republican candidates did, she would have been dead meat.
Though trying hard to remain presidential and "play high", it had been the emotive issues on women, racial issues, non-disclosure and non paying of tax, and stiffing contractors that turned the table for Hillary.
Leading to the first debate, her poll numbers were just about even with Trump. After yesterday's, it would be only divine intervention or the remote possibility of nullification due to Trump refusal to accept results to deny Hillary the presidency.
In anticipation of Trump trying hard to dig in and turned presidential, she up her ante with the timely dispensing of Trump's own medicine to mock, taunt and torment him. Read this New York Times fun piece here.
Sadly, the once much respected US Presidential debate with it's content of facts, arguments and ideas has came down to the most prepared person to assume the Presidency accusing Donald of cheating out of paying social security and replied with a "nasty woman" response.
Guess Malaysian politics is not far off.
Yesterday, Theresa Kok responded to accused Gerakan MP of "jahat" for interjecting and rebutting her with the argument Penang government failed to consult federal government on the undersea tunnel project.
Political narrative cannot be avoided from public discussion on economy, policies and government. Corruption is human's individual fallacy but it is convenient political rhetorics to invoke anger towards a certain party.
The budget for 2017 to be tabled in Parliament today will expect the same political rhetorical treatment too.
With cash rich Saudi Arabia just announced a US$17 billion bond issue, the first ever borrowing and massive one, it is childish of Tun Dr Mahathir to snipe a remark of budget being useless because it is only promises and government will not be able to meet the budget.
During the currency crisis of 19998-2000, did he not also had to retable his budget for not meeting his revenue forecast?
Mahathir had not detoured far from his initial chronology of issues based on the political slogans on dedak and cash is king, personal potshot at Najib and Rosmah, GST and BR1M, etc.
The other two is on Sirul and 1MDB.
Off late, with him in a political warpath, Mahathir is not on rational mode and have not got his facts and figures in order. Seademon here highlighted the inconsistencies in his economic views. Debt to GDP ration during his time reached more than 100%!
He is motivated by politics and not interested for a serious discussion on the economy. The intention is only to ignite anger among the public. If ISA is still around, there are reasons to lock him up. Only it looks cruel to lock up a 91 year old man.
No doubt that Mahathir's one issue agenda of 1MDB to topple the PM is taking it's course but already the Monet painting is under dispute by the real owner.
It puts into question DOJ's fact finding and investigative earnestness. Malaysian born Australian lawyer, Quentin Rozario raised issues of law with DOJ's filing.
With Loretta Lynch name seldom appeared in the election campaign with relate to issue on the Clinton Foundation, do not discount future development on her and Kleptocrasy suit against Red Granite.
As Rocky summarised here, the so-called nook tightening on PM's neck is not even around his neck. Yet pro-toon already presumed guilty on just evidence-lacking accusation by Mahathir.
Next week on 28th Red Granite is due to file their defense.
Should be interesting development in the midst of budget debate with opposition using the fictitious alternative budget to champion political cause.
They claimed they could halves PM Department budget and zero-rise GST. It is surely a poplar move but the absurdity of it is where re they going to get the revenue to fund their budget as pointed out by Liow here.
If they political rhetorics is about PM Office, they should distinguish between PMO and PM Department. The various programs and agencies established under PM Department will still need to be re-direct to other Ministries.
Closing it up will be disastrous to the economy and in a situation where government role is needed to stimulate and transform the economy, opposition is adding more short term problem for political expediency.
And their budget could save the economy from crashing?
Another Kadir Jasin like conspiracy theory of a failed economy but evidential facts and substantive argument. The economic mechanism stop working in a failed economy, Is it happening?
Does it mean there is no hope for a rational and mature politics?
Maybe it i snot so bleak if new generation of voters wants to emulate more developed democrasy to demand for credible dialogue and not fall for the shallow rhetorics of Bersih and anti-Bersih people and various shallow cheap psywar like lying about withdrawal of cooking oil subsidy and toll hike.
It would be beneficial to have an independent body to do fact checking of politicians statements and allegations. In Yesterday's third debate between Trump and Clinton, Trump failed badly. He looks destined for a major wipe off as Hillary close in on traditional Republican electoral colleges.
Scientific American concluded:
We need similar controls for the confirmation bias in the arenas of law, business and politics. Judges and lawyers should call one another on the practice of mining data selectively to bolster an argument and warn juries about the confirmation bias. CEOs should assess critically the enthusiastic recommendations of their VPs and demand to see contradictory evidence and alternative evaluations of the same plan. Politicians need a stronger peer-review system that goes beyond the churlish opprobrium of the campaign trail, and I would love to see a political debate in which the candidates were required to make the opposite case.Ten years after this article, political debate has been demeaned to mud wrestling and no different in the third world politics of Malaysia if we ever start one. The answer lies in the last line:
Skepticism is the antidote for the confirmation bias.
Already got what's needed. Rather go for workout to loosen upper torso syndrome issues.
Enjoy listening to the budget!