Since picture of Dato Seri Azmin Ali and Datin Seri Dr Wan Azizah visiting Dato Seri Haji Hadi Awang viraled on social media few weeks ago, there were speculation that PKR is trying to appease PAS.
Azmin denied but it is not convincing. It is nothing new since PAS and PKR are still together in what is left of the Selangor Pakatan Rakyat government.
The question is whether PAS will go together with PH with Tun Dr Mahathir around.
PAS Selangor announced they will run in 40 seats in Selangor, including taking on Azmin and Azizah. Is PAS Selangor for real?
Part of the act is the current public quarrel between PKR and PAN. If it is for real, it is a proxy quarrel between PKR and DAP.
PAS's game is still tricky.
Haji Hadi seemed to be BN friendly or shall we say, UMNO friendly but the likes of Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man and even Takiyuddin is sending a different message.
In the last party election, PAS circle claimed Takiyuddin was behind manouvres to halt the seemingly UMNO-friendly Nik Abduh.
Is Nik Abduh really UMNO-friendly?
If UMNO is weak and a Malay tsunami against UMNO likely to happen, he will no more be. On the opposite, he may re-consider his view made in private that UMNO is a PN4 company ready for winding up.
Malay tsunami
DAP is claiming there will be a Malay tsunami against UMNO. Uncertainty on the 1MDB debacle and rising prices could go against them.
But, things are not gell-ing well for all opposition parties, including Warisan in Sabah in view of speculated arrest of their leadership on counts of corruptuon.
One case after another cases of corruption, money laundering, abuse of power and latest environmental mishap are rearing its ugly heads in the opposition-led states.
The public may not understand the technical implication but in Selangor, revival of cases involving UNISEL and DEIG is seen by certain members of the legal community as a deadly blow waiting to befall on the speechless without credible response Azmin.
The anonymous portal Selangor-Leak, which leaked UNISEL documents, has started revealing on Eco World's latest launch on a RM1.2 billion land in Ijok, Kuala Selangor (read here and here).
There maybe hanky panky involved in the land acquisition of Perbadanan Kemajuan Pertanian Selangor settlers.
Eco World has Mahathir's people on its Board of Directors. EPF, which is a JV partner with Eco World, is led by Tan Sri Nor Mohamed Yakcop's boy. Is this the making of a gigantic wave breaker?
There are several suspicion on identity of Selangor Leaks; Rafizi, or anti-KARTEL (anti-Azmin) or conveniently also UMNO.
On Malay tsunami, Joceline Tan wrote in The Star today:
Lim has also been talking about a Malay tsunami that will cause Kedah, Perak and Johor to fall to Pakatan in the general election.
He said the Malay tsunami will also enable Pakatan to win Putrajaya with 113 out of 222 parliamentary seats. It means a government holding on with a majority of only two seats which sceptics say will last maybe two weeks.
Lim did not define how the Malay tsunami would happen but his hypothesis seems to be based on the hope of a 10% Malay vote swing and 5% non-Malay vote swing.
The Malay tsunami story drew quite a bit of interest. The trouble was that most people had trouble believing it.
For instance, the common query was: Where is Pakatan’s Malay tsunami going to come from now that PAS is not around to deliver the Malay votes?
Former Election Commission chairman Tan Sri Abdul Rashid Abdul Rahman admitted that PAS is still a force to reckon with in Malay states.
“But we (Parti Pribumi) will play a leading role in taking Malay votes away from Umno,” said Abdul Rashid, who is now a vice-president of Parti Pribumi and who will be moving from running elections to contesting in an election.
Lim, said a DAP insider, is banking on Dr Mahathir to neutralise the PAS influence and even to wipe out PAS in certain states like Penang.
“Kit Siang is not stupid, he does not trust Mahathir but he is putting his chips on Mahathir creating a political momentum,” said the insider.
A high-ranking DAP leader from Kuala Lumpur has however cautioned his party: “Much as we talk about a Malay tsunami, we have to make sure we don’t lose our Chinese tsunami.”
To political commentator Khaw Veon Szu, the Malay tsunami story sounds more like psywar than a prediction based on facts and findings.
“On what assumption would the Malay vote swing to Pakatan? Pakatan cannot talk about a Malay tsunami while ignoring the PAS factor. It’s a fatal omission, a big hole in their grand design,” said Khaw.
Dr Mahathir, said Khaw, is able to attract Malay votes to Pakatan but he also repels voters who cannot come to terms with his past.
“He will win some, he will lose some,” said Khaw.
Some think that Lim is either delusional or in self-denial. Others think that given his problematic image among the Malays, he is the wrong person to talk about a Malay tsunami and it could instead send the Malays running in the opposition direction.
“The tsunami thing is not aimed at the Malays but at their Chinese base. They can see that the Chinese base is softening around the edges and they need to energise their core support especially in Johor,” said Khaw.
The Chinese electorate, said a think-tank head, has grown lethargic, fed-up and tired of the non-stop politicking.
Read more here.Chinese revert
If Chinese is beginning to soften around the edges, can Kit Siang stop a Chinese revert with talk of Malay tsunami?
He can't even stop his son from going to prison on corruption. It is said there are more mutual business interest links between Lim Guan Eng and Phang Li Koon than is publicly known. And, Phang has family tie with "So What" exco member, Phee Boon Pah.
Lim Guan Eng can only talk but the belief among Penangite is he is a compulsive liar and never honest in his replies to criticism or inquiries.
There is a growing feeling among the Penang business community that he failed to administer the state and is corrupt.
And, there is strong anti-non Penangite sentiment developing in the state. Guan Eng and father hails from Johor. There is jealousy among Penangites that he has been dishing state contracts to Chinese contractors from Batu Pahat and Johor Baru.
Joceline's last week column gave another indication to a Chew Jetty incident many years ago. The community there went against tradition to not invite Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng for a Chiinese New Year event..
This time it happened at a Penang Chnese Clan Association dinner:
“If the only Chinese Chief Minister in this country cannot accept the people’s opinion and help the Chinese guilds and associations, we are worried for the future of the Chinese. As Chinese, we should think carefully, if we make the wrong decision, it can affect the future of our children. For their sake, we should make the right decision.” said Penang Chinese Clans Association (PCCA) Dr Chang Wei Lu.Let's not be too presumptous into thinking it is all safe and sound for DAP. For the time being, MCA and Gerakan offers no threat.
Dr Chang stepped off the stage to a standing ovation as the Hawaii Five-O theme music blasted through the hall. With that, the standoff between PCCA and the state government reached a point of no return.
The Chinese vernacular media has gone to town with it. They can see that this issue has evolved into something more than just a dispute over a tumbledown building.
For a start, the presence of Chinese community figures at the PCCA dinner surprised observers.
“Selling dinner tables is no big deal in this town, but these people not only showed up, they shared the stage with the man who is fighting the Chief Minister,” said a Penang lawyer.
The Chinese press gave it maximum coverage and the Penang-based Kwong Wah Yit Poh devoted a full page to the event with the dramatic headline: “Bridge between Penang government and people gone”.
Read more here
Outcome
Generally, when there is too many uncertainties, voters go with who they know.
So if the attack by Pakatan Harapan on UMNO and BN is merely allegations on corruption, primarily the not-easy-to-understand 1MDB issue, what would be the reaction when corruption and embezzlement cases against Selangor and Penang leaders are worse off than allegations towards BN?
More so, if there is a resolution to the 1MDB debacle.
The Mahathir camp is nervous and having bad dream that Dato Najib's visit next month may lead to one. He already made allegation Najib paid lobbyist like he paid US$1.2 million to Jack Abram to arrange meeting with then President George Bush in the height of reformasi.
No lobby money need be paid with active Foreign Minister, Dato Anifah Aman having close and personal relationship with his counterparts.
Any resolution need face saving on the American side as DOJ had wrongly backed the wrong old horse.
If 1MDB is not resolved, the result of the next General Election may go down to the wire. It may not be decided by just the better strategy but the better tactician.
The better tactician will only able to operate with right strategy in place, in which each side may know what the other do and the one with more supreme machinery.
As far as the Malay voters, it is machinery might of UMNO with or against dedicated machinery of PAS against minnow PKR, PPBM and PAN.
Mahathir should be careful with his words to blame PAS for PH inability to topple BN. It just might make them train their gun to topple PH and dominate opposition bench.