Tun Dr Mahathir continued his wave creation with the third mega-ceramah in Pasir Gudang. It was in Pasir Gudang in 2016 that he was challenged at a Saturday UMNO ceramah to show-up at the Bersih rally gathering in Kuala Lumpur.
To the surprise of his officer, he did appear upon touchdown at Subang in his private jet that evening and the next day Sunday. That ended any remaining affection yours truly had left for Mahathir after a 12-year involvement.
Since end of 2014, he and his inner circle were behaving suspiciously; an officer suspected of regularly meeting Xavier Justo in Thailand and Mahathir secretly meet Dato Seri Azmin Ali in London. They thought it did not go unnoticed.
Feedback received from Pasir Gudang locals claimed majority of the attendee are outsiders from Tebrau, Kota Tinggi, etc and Chinese presence was significant.
Nevertheless, the number of 3,000 that subsequently increase to 4,000 upon arrival of Mahathir could make any armchair supporters ecstatic. Opposition supporters are being psyched into thinking Johor could fall in their second attempt and UMNO’s white area is only eight.
Actually, it is the converse and the identified as black for BN is 7 or 8, including Indian-seat Segamat. DAP gave up after failing in all their three Tanjung projects before the unexpected Chinese tsunami of 2008.
By the way, the above picture is at a concert in at Bukit Layang-Layang last night. The political rally is below in the smaller area of Bukit Dahlia but achieved the pack-looking image.
Been there and done that, all political rallies are politik wayang. It is only indicative of support. Anwar’s huge reformasi crowd did not brought down Mahathir. Civil liberty still delivered Pak Lah and Dato Seri Najib victories.
Winning or losing seats lies in managing the campaign to achieve the numbers. Academic macro-analysis based entirely on issues and media reports are mere “dog with different fleas” to use the quote of Gordon Gecko in the movie Wall Street.
PKR logo for PH
Last night’s rally could be considered important to PH. After the blow for getting PPBM suspended its registration thus not qualified to run for the election, what was heard for couple of months to have happened was announced last night.
Much to the chagrin of Dato Mukhriz, claimed a source in Langkawi, Mahathir announced PPBM together with DAP and Amanah will run under a single PKR. The move could be seen as the reformasi and Mahathirites compromising their dignity or letting bygone be bygone.
Sources from PPBM dissidents claimed the latter is unlikely. The logo could pose major operational, financial and inter-party problems at ground level.
PKR party members have been holding back on their anger with the arrogant attitude of PPBM members and Mahathir's pentaksub. As one cabang commitee member told us, "Wait till they get deregistered."
The suspension was long expected. If yours truly is aware since middle of last year, PPBM knows well. That is the reason members have left the party by the thousands and 400 compalins came in against false Annual General Meeting.
Former DAP Chairman and former owner of Pontian Estate, Sabah which FGV bought during the reign of Tan Sri Isa Samad, Dr Chen Man Hin was sad to see rocket logo will not be seen.
Actually, it is to DAP’s advantage to camouflage the DAP presence as PKR to achieve the Malay tsunami. In Sabah and Sarawak, rocket is still used.
Pasir Gudang
Nevertheless, PH cleverly used Pasir Gudang to launch their campaign for Johor. Many big names from DAP, PKR and Amanah are set to run in Johor. [Read Joceline Tan: It’s an all-out challenge in Johor].
The political home base of Menteri Besar Dato Khaled Nordin is Pasir Gudang and his state constituency of Permas is within the Pasir Gudang parliamentary constituency.
Since returning to Johor, Khaled have been focusing on addressing the color rating of white-grey from turning black.
Pasir Gudang could be considered grey and it was one of the hotspot for the anti Najib wave. Some sensitive pro-Najib supporters had been sceptical of Khaled and believed him as anti-Najib. However, it could be him stemming the groundswell.
While he was successful to save the situation, he may have made the mistake of putting the same losing and voter-rejected MCA candidate, Tan Cher Puck for Johor Jaya.
Pasir Gudang constituency is estimated as 40% Chinese, Malay few percent more than 50%, and Indian 15%. If Khaled is as widely believed to run for both Pasir Gudang parliament and Permas state assembly seat, he may win.
PKR is testing the ground to put Tian Chua for Pasir Gudang parliament. The reason there was a big crowd brought in from outside.
ANother anaoysis on Pasir Gudang by Sabahan Phillip Golingai here.
But, PAS will be a possible spoiler to split the Malay votes in Pasir Gudang and many other areas in Johor. So, PAS is not working together with BN, just not practising animosity politics of PH.
End for Muhyiddin
Khaled possible political hedging could be due to rumour the next MB for Johor could be the former State Secretary, Dato Ismail Karim who could be running in Kota Tinggi.
DAP announced Tan Sri Muhyiddin as next Johor MB at a ceramah. [Read Joceline Tan: Pakatan wants Muhyiddin as MB – Analysis]. Despite talk of Muhyiddin looking at certain state seat in Muar district and talk Dr Shaharuddin is destined for Putrajaya parlimentary, Joceline Tan is right.
Next MB is not likely to be him. It could be merely a red herring or since Dato Dr Rais Hussein is promoting Muhyiddin’s commitment to PPBM in this You Tube here, it could be a red snapper.
Joceline wrote The palace factor in Johor politics. Many reasons to speculate Sultan do not see Muhyiddin’s past in JB and his association with Mahathir favourably.
Contrary to other analyses, it is a matter of dignity for Muhyiddin to return and run in Pagoh. Dare bet our monthly salary against other’s monthly salary that he will lose.
He has zero machinery left. His fall from grace was the opportunity for the boys (now elderly) of the late Tan Sri Osman Saat to get even.
Guan Eng’s slaughter house
What do we see of Liew Chee Tong running against Dato Dr Wee Ka Siong in Ayer Hitam, Gobind versus Dato Chua Tee Yong in Labis, etc.?
It is likely to be more than the FMT report here of a move to kill-off Dr Boo Cheng Hau. Simply, because Lim Kit Siang already did it.
While most felt it is a similar strategic move by DAP to go for the kill on MCA and Gerakan, like Nga Kor Meng running against Gerakan President, Dato Mah Siew Kong in Telok Intan, it could be more along the untold reason Tony Pua is sent to run against Dato Liow in Bentong.
And, Hannah Yeoh acting strangely lately and returning back to the true Christian teaching on corruption.
The assemblyman for Bagan is not only nervous about debating Wee Ka Siong at his home turf but also questions against him within the party, though still not loud. If Lim Kit Siang gone, so does the son. At one time, health reason was heard to not allow him run for this GE.
Maybe he should and looking forward for the supposed candidate for last GE, Jason Teoh run against him in Gelang Patah. Most unlikely he dare to take on Tan Sri Shahrir Samad in Johor Baru.
DAP will be sending a bevy of celebrity names to run in Johor, but it will be in Chinese majority area. Running under PKR logo may not change much. The other parties will be tasked to face UMNO.
PPBM did not attract major names and members from among UMNO members in Johor. They could make an impact elsewhere but not significant in Johor. Muhyiddin pun belim tahu lepas ...
If it is status quo in Batu Pahat, it will be status quo in Johor. Anyone dare to bet?